UI – Part 523 – Islamic Terrorists By The Numbers (Part 1)

Just how many Islamic terrorists, referred to as Jihadists, are there?  We will attempt to determine a general estimate.  All assumptions will be presented.

Population

There are an estimated 1.8 billion Muslims in the world.  Compare that to 2.1 Billion Christians.  By most estimates Muslims are growing in numbers at a faster rate than Christians, due to birth rates alone.  However, in more developed countries the birth rate for Muslims slows, coming more in line with the rate for Christians.  However where Muslims ignore marriage laws in the free world, having multiple wives, licensed marriages and other, the rate of increase for Muslims continues to exceed that of Christians.  This does not account for conversions or death due to constant battles, most notably in the Middle East and Southeast Asia where tribal wars and battles for hegemony in the region are waged continually.

As an aside, in the USA the growth of Muslims in the past 5 years or so has been flat, as Muslims emigrating or being born is being offset by those converting out of their religion/ideology.  Conversions are mostly to atheism.

To make the math easier and considering the growth of Islam, as a base number 2 Billion will be used.  Note – for this discussion jihadist, radical Islamist, and terrorist are interchangeable.

Women as Moderates

Moderates do not view the call from the Quran to kill infidels in the same manner as terrorists, or extreme Islamists.  There are moderates in the Middle East and other majority Islamic nations, but moreso in the West where living alongside other religions has been the norm for centuries.  Women are considered moderate for this study.  There have been exceptions, and in several cases women have been either forced or called into packing explosives on their bodies and compelled to die for Allah at the command or insistence of demonic overlords of Islam. But we will eliminate women, or 50% of the Muslim population.

The base for potential terrorists is now one (1) Billion.

Voters

One area suggested as an indicator are the voting booths in areas like Iran, Iraq, Egypt, the nations that comprise the Maghreb, even Indonesia. Voting in Saudi Arabia is rare; and there are no political parties.  We find at least 60% tend to vote for the Islamist (the less moderate), the fundamentalists, certainly not the secularists.  Islamists live in a culture that is totally focused on Islam, with Islam generally as the only recognized religion.  Having grown up surrounded, their environments, by the call for prayer (the adhan), minarets and mosque domes dominating landscapes, and an absence of church spires, the only religion they know or recognize is their own.  No bibles are generally allowed; punishment for having a bible is often the case.  The only religious voices they hear are from mullahs and Imams, who reinforce the enmity towards Christians and Jews clearly noted in the Quran (Sura 60:4). They lean towards the scholars (the ulema), the dictates of the government, and say little in opposition to the crimes of Islamists against non-muslims. They also accept Islamic Law.  But in those majority Muslim nations where these voting records are noted, be aware that they have little knowledge of the outside world, of modern and free economies and the opportunities that exist outside the boundaries of Islam in which they were born and raised.  They live in what can be described as a cage. That is particularly true in rural communities.

Of our billion, the 60% of voters represents 600 million male fundamentalists as potential radical Islamists or primed to become radicals and jihadists.

Only a small percentage, estimates are less than 3%, of the world’s Muslims live in more developed countries (Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan).  There may be concerns, but it is safe, I believe, to say, that most of these are not radicals.  There are fundamentalists among them, the scholars that teach and the organizations that represent Islam, but as of now the percentages are low.  From the totals we can eliminate another 3%. There are exceptions, as in any situation.

Our extremist potential is now 582 million.

Age

Age is a signifiant factor, Sunni and Shia. A 28.5% of the world’s Muslim population lives in the Middle East and North Africa (Pew Research).  68% lives in Asia. The remainder are in Europe, North and South America and Oceania.  According to Pew Research (see graph) 63% of the population is under 30 (median age 30, by 2030 – Pew Research), 29% between 14 and 30.  The young age, among women as well, adds to the fertility factor in the regions. In Israel Muslims under 30 represent closer to 45% of the Muslim population (now about 1.5 million).

Within the  populations in Islamaland (majority Muslim counties) the more militant tend to be in the age groups from 18 to 30. In this group are the risk takers, sensation seekers eager to prove their masculinity.  The percentage we will use for this contingent, given the information we have, is 27% taking out the youngest.  However we all must be aware the young can be educated and will grow into the more probable age category, a valid concern.  For now we will set them aside.

Our extreme group, the numbers from which there is the greatest immediate potential for jihad, is now 157 million.

Apathy

More needs to be said.  From our base of 2 billion, and the 157 million potential jihadists, one might argue the balance of 1.8 billion is moderate, but not secular.  800 million, to include women, may be secular leaning.  Unfortunately all too often those not in the potential for jihad group, the moderates, have been persons less prone to take direct action, a silent majority, apathetic, when it comes to horrendous evil deeds committed by the militant mass.  One can argue few will speak out against the Islamist’s action for fear of retribution.  Others may say they are latent themselves, merchants of the All for Allah objective of Islam, quiet but supportive.

In the words of Martin Luther King, Jr., “He who passively accepts evil is as much involved in it as he who helps to perpetrate it. He who accepts evil without protesting against it is really cooperating with it.”

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Part 2 to follow in two days.  The 157 million terrorist wannabes is the base.  But the whole is subject to influences and controls.  In the next article Factors to Consider, the influences to include scholars and teachers, from mosques and madrassas (schools), are discussed.  There is a pool much deeper than the 157 million from which to recruit.  They remain silenced, to the extent possible, and can join the jihadi cabal at any moment.

Grace and Peace