Today the United States and Iran want Israel to remove their military, the IDF, from Lebanon.  The U.S. supports Israeli security needs and conditions any full IDF withdrawal on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament/LAF control (per UNSCR 1701 frameworks). Yet Israel, having the right to defend itself, seeks the removal of Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy and a constant threat to Israel, or as a minimum disarmed.  Under a US-brokered ceasefire during this 2026 Lebanon War (began 3/2026) Israel continues to feel threatened and attacked, and responds accordingly.  Thus there are violations. Netanyahu wants the Lebanese Army to take control, of Lebanon, of Hezbollah, and make this peace work.  Hezbollah is a Shia faction operating like the Islamic Republic of Iran, wholly backed by Iran. So the question is, who is in charge of the government of Lebanon.  Is there anyone in Lebanon, the same question applies to Iran, that can make an agreement, sign a document, that is meaningful and operative.  Hezbollah thinks it is Lebanon, and the sovereignty of the country is a Shia religious militant faction, not a secular entity. 

Elected to a 6 year term in 2025, Joseph Aoun, is the President of Lebanon. The Prime Minister is Nawaf Salam, nominated by the President. There is a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) that reports to Aoun. Hezbollah’s influence on the government has weakened, but still is a major influence. It is allied with the Arab contingent in Parliament, Amal, and has 2 of the 24 ministerial seats (Health and Labour) in the current government. In May 2022 elections reduced Hezbollah’s Parliamentary majority. Israel has been effective in reducing Hezbollah’s command over the Country, along with pressure from Saudi Arabia, the US and France. But to say Hezbollah cannot complicate or obstruct matters of importance any more, is going too far at the moment.  Iran continues to back Hezbollah, and provide ideological and military support. The current government is attempting to exert leadership, wanting more state control over what happens and preferring international partnerships to Iran.  Seats in Parliament are to be based on census, but as there has been none since 1932, the balance is now 50/50, Christians and Muslims/Druze, with no Jews. They are all Arabs, Arab Christians and Arab Muslims. Of the Muslim representation (64 seats total) 13-15 are Hezbollah, 14-12 are Amal (all 27 Shia). There are 27 seats filled with Sunni Muslims. The Druze have 8 and Alawites 2, the latter groups are more sectarian. Iran provided Hezbollah over $1 Billion in 2025, according to Wikipedia, in cash, weapons, training and social services. 

As to whether the current government can truly govern and reduce the power of Hezbollah, the consensus answer would be ‘no.’  As of March 2026 plans were announced for disarmament, giving the Lebanese Army more of a role, and talking to Israel. But know that the LAF (60,000 strong) is weaker than Hezbollah. And few know where all of the caches of weapons are kept, or how many. With Israel’s help they are more effective in the South, and less so in the North. The more losses Hezbollah suffers on the battlefield, the greater will be the opportunity for an independent government to emerge. 

Hezbollah operated as a parallel power to the Lebanese; its military forces and funding from Iran gave it the independence to constantly challenge and threaten the powers that be.  The war with Iran and Iran’s currently limitations on funding have hurt Hezbollah.  Israel wants Hezbollah eradicated.  

Before the Iranian Revolution (1979) there was no Hezbollah, but there was the PLO, and Arafat and the Fatah Party wanting independence for a Palestine State, operating from Lebanon.  From Israel’s formation in 1948 wars with Arabs caused the displacement of many Palestinians, mostly into Lebanon.  They lived in camps in many areas. Other Arab nations, like Egypt, Jordan (1970 Black September), and Saudi Arabia would not take in the refugees or released prisoners (from Israel).  In Gaza the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist militant hate-fueled organization, formed Hamas, a political faction competing with the Fatah Party.  Arafat also had Muslim Brotherhood ties.  Iran’s hate for Israel and wanting them eliminated (Death to Israel) provided support for the development and training of Hezbollah, and also Hamas, although Hamas was Sunni. They became excellent proxies for Iran.  When Arafat actually supported a two State solution for Israel and Palestine (in 1988), the religious anti-Israel, Palestine nationalists, took umbrage and turned on Arafat’s Fatah Party, making Hamas the political force for the change they sought.  That change did not include a separate state, just the destruction of the Zionist Israel. Arafat shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994 with Rabin and Peres for the Oslo Accords.

Lebanon was formed after WWI (1920) with the fall of the Ottoman Empire.  It was created by France, and was a home for Arab Christians and became a beacon of prosperity and light to the Middle East; its Capital named the “Paris of the Middle East” (“Switzerland of the Orient”).  It declared its independence in 1943.  The 50’s and early 60’s were a “Golden Age” with luxury hotels, tourism, vibrant nightlife and sunbathing and beaches during the daytime.  Intellectual life thrived. Beirut became a center for banking. When the Palestinian refugees began to arrive, demographics changed too.  It was 1964 when the PLO was founded.  Muslim religious factions were feeling constrained as development was in the urban areas, not the Shia south. The PLO exerted control over Palestinian encampments, blessed by the Cairo Agreement, arming the Palestinians (the fedayeen),  and began making raids into Israel.  All this eventually led to the Lebanese Civil War (75-90) and mitigated the sovereignty of this Nation. Lebanon’s sovereignty has been compromised for decades by non-state actors.

A once great Country, an exciting and safe place to visit, became, as a result of political and Islamic factions oriented to the destruction of Israel and western influence, became a war torn ground, controlled by foreign Islamic forces, primarily Iran, and a base for a proxy of the Islamic Republic to rain down rockets and military forces on its southern neighbor. To the Islamists it was not just Israel, but Lebanon itself, a growing sectarian entity, that threatened its religious objective.  It needed to be sharia compliant and either Shia (preferred by Iran) or Sunni controlled.  Sectarianism is anathema to Islam.  Compatibility with free peoples is too.  A democracy was not to be in Lebanon if the political Islamists could do anything about it.  Which they did.  

Israel is right, in my opinion, that Iran needs regime change.  The MOU will never be effective.  The Islamists are too apocalyptic and can never accept a coalition of differing viewpoints.  It must be total control and dominance, people oppressed and suppressed, women marginalized and useful as fertility fields for Islamist militants, All for Allah. The beneficiaries can only be the Mullahs, the clerics, the Imams, the Ayatollah’s and their army (the IRGCs). Regime change in Iran means no more support for Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthi’s in Yemen.  No more threats to the Lebanese government.  No more threat to a sectarian governance.  No more rockets fired from the north or the south into Israel. Until there is no Islamic Republic remaining in Iran there will be war, the ashes will reignite and the fire will burn anew, and need to be quelled again, and again. The ashes of these wars are not just in Iran, they are in Lebanon and Gaza, and the proxies, as long as any part remains, as the T-1000 in Terminator, will reconstitute itself and its mission. The heads of the Islamic Hydra need removal. 

by Thomas W. Balderston, Author and Blogger (July 2026)